Lula Secures Fourth Term After Comeback Win Over Bolsonaro

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has secured a record fourth term as Brazil's president. The 80-year-old leftist leader defeated right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in Sunday's run-off election. This victory marks a rare comeback in Brazilian politics, as no candidate had previously won the presidency after finishing second in the first round.

Electoral authorities declared Lula the winner when approximately 98.76 percent of ballots were counted. He received more than 51 percent of the vote, while Bolsonaro captured 48 percent. The race remained tight until the final tallies, with polls showing the two candidates virtually tied in the days leading up to the vote. Results from the northeast, a traditional stronghold for Lula and his Workers' Party, swung the outcome in his favor.

Three weeks prior, Bolsonaro held a lead in the first round. He finished with 47.03 percent of the vote compared to Lula's 45.16 percent, a gap of 2.2 million votes. Since then, Lula focused on winning back voters who had abstained in the first round. He emphasized the cost of living and the future of social programs. Bolsonaro, whose support is strong in the south, southeast, and center-west, briefly led as counting began on Sunday evening before falling behind.

The final hours of voting were marked by confusion following a late decision to extend voting times. Both campaigns requested more time to accommodate voters. Lula's team accused local officials of cutting public transport in several cities, arguing this hindered lower-income voters from reaching polling stations. Bolsonaro's campaign pointed to heavy rain and flooding as reasons for the delay. In Minas Gerais, the regional electoral court reported that 349 polling locations lost electricity, though voting machines continued to operate on backup batteries.

Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered stations to remain open until 7 p.m. Brasilia time, extending the usual 5 p.m. deadline. The order arrived after some stations had already closed and shut down their machines. Zanin later clarified that stations that had already closed would not reopen. This led to some voters being turned away despite the extension. Bolsonaro pledged to annul the vote, accusing Zanin of changing the rules mid-game. He noted that Lula appointed Zanin to the Supreme Court in 2023 after Zanin served as his personal lawyer.

Turnout likely influenced the result. Andrei Roman, head of polling firm AtlasIntel, identified a drop in abstention as a key factor in Lula's win. In the first round, an estimated 33.4 million Brazilians, or about 21 percent of the electorate, stayed home. This represented the highest abstention rate in a general election since 1998. Lula also made late appeals to his working-class base, including a promise to provide free public transport on weekends.

The outcome has implications for United States policy in Latin America. Reuters reported that State Department officials had pushed for sanctions against Brazil to weaken Lula's position. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he is watching the results but did not want to specify whom he preferred. Lula built his campaign on defending Brazilian sovereignty against what he described as foreign interference. In his victory speech, he stated that the election was a defeat for denialism and lies.