Midterm Politics: Iran War Weighs on GOP as Gas Prices Stay High

The U.S. war with Iran has entered its eighth month, a timeline that contradicts President Donald Trump's initial prediction that the conflict would last only a few weeks. This prolonged engagement is now a central issue for voters heading to the polls on Nov. 3, particularly as energy costs remain elevated.

Republican strategists privately admit that the war is damaging their party's effort to retain control of Congress. Rising gasoline prices are increasing costs across nearly every economic sector, while new hostilities in the region have complicated the political landscape. The conflict has spread beyond the initial border, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacking Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and airports in response to a Saudi-led coalition's strikes on Yemen.

The State Department announced over the weekend that it is reducing staffing at four U.S. embassies in the Middle East. Officials cited intelligence indicating that Iran has increased its efforts to target American personnel in the region and elsewhere. This development adds a layer of urgency to the election cycle as candidates debate the administration's strategy.

Diesel prices are hovering near all-time highs in the United States. This trend is creating competitive races in typically conservative states such as Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas. Noor Dubow, a 44-year-old dispatcher in Columbus, Ohio, said he usually votes for Republicans who align with his economic views. However, frustration with the Iran war tipped him toward Democrats in this cycle. Dubow asked why Republicans in Congress were not holding Trump accountable for the decision.

An AP-NORC poll published last week found that voters from both major parties want the next Congress to focus on affordability and ending the war. The conflict has had significant ramifications for the global economy, and domestic voters are feeling the pressure. Trump has consistently downplayed the economic impact in his campaign speeches, arguing that elevated gas prices are a temporary inconvenience worth paying to defang Iran.

At a weekend rally in Michigan, Trump said he has no regrets about launching the war. He told the audience that he expected gas prices to be double or triple what they are now. He described the cost as a small price to pay for removing a nuclear weapon from Iran. Trump also suggested that a new, intensive round of bombing could occur after the election, often within the same speech where he insisted the war's end is near.

Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory, noted that Trump's messaging on the war is resonating with a shrinking portion of the electorate. He stated that for voters disappointed with the direction of the conflict, the president's claims are not changing their negative outlook. Internal campaign polling suggests that Trump's argument that the affordability crisis is a Democrat-invented hoax has not resonated with American voters.

Oil prices peaked in May, fell in June, and surged again in September as Trump threatened to escalate the conflict. The national average for gasoline has remained above $4 per gallon since mid-June. Clay Coey, a 59-year-old auctioneer in DeWitt, Michigan, said he cringes when filling his 2010 Chrysler Sebring. Coey, who supports Trump's security goals, said there comes a point where voters must ask what the cost is worth.

Sean O'Brien, a 21-year-old student at Auburn University in Alabama, said the Iran decision left him very disillusioned with the Republican brand. O'Brien, who attended the Conservative Political Action Conference earlier this year, now expects to vote Democratic. He views the conflict as a betrayal of the America First promise to keep the U.S. out of foreign wars.