Israel Votes as Blocs Remain Divided

Israeli citizens cast their ballots on Tuesday for the next Knesset, marking the first national election since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023. The vote determines whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will continue leading the government or if the opposition bloc will take power.

Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party holds the lead within the opposition group, a position that has persisted in recent surveys. This shift places the opposition ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud party in several projections. However, neither bloc is currently predicted to secure the 61 seats required for a standalone majority.

The final Channel 12 poll released on Friday shows the opposition bloc at 56 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats. Arab parties are projected to win 16 seats in total. Most opposition leaders have stated they will not form a coalition with these parties, citing the political context following the 2023 attacks.

Likud is projected to win 19 seats, a decrease from the 32 seats it holds in the current Knesset. Yashar is expected to receive 22 seats, making it the largest single party. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party is projected to win 14 seats. The outcome remains uncertain as smaller parties fight to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold.

Voter turnout will influence the number of votes needed to enter the Knesset. The Taub Center estimates that a party requires 165,635 votes to clear the threshold at a 70% turnout rate. This figure increases as turnout rises, creating a higher bar for smaller contenders like Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and Yoaz Hendel’s the Reservists-Economics party.

Key issues for voters include the Israel Defense Forces manpower crisis, legislation regarding ultra-Orthodox conscription, and calls for a state commission of inquiry into the events of October 7. Traditional debates over a Palestinian state have receded as most major parties now oppose its establishment. Netanyahu, who has served for 19 non-consecutive years, faces calls from the opposition to step down.

Polling stations opened at 7:00 a.m., with exit polls scheduled for 10:00 p.m. Voting at diplomatic missions abroad ended on October 16, while some military bases began voting early. Police prepared approximately 20,000 officers and volunteers to maintain order at polling stations nationwide. Officials stated these forces are deployed to protect public safety and ensure the electoral process follows the law.